Around the world, 2021 will be remembered as year two of the COVID pandemic. In the Northwest cherry industry 2021 will be remembered as the year where a never seen before heat dome settled over the growing region for a week in June and early July. Temperatures hit as high as 118 degrees for several days across the entire growing region. The repercussions were cataclysmic as the heat stunted fruit and rendered 20% of the crop as un-harvestable.
The crop itself came in just over 20 million 20 lb. equivalent boxes. The final crop shipped came in at 20,342,214 boxes which proved to be lower than the Round 1 industry estimate which came out on May 5, 2021 – of 23,800,000 – which with the heat disruption ended up being 15% below the original estimate. The early portion of the crop was negatively affected by a market that was overflowing with smaller than normal California grown sweet cherries. Certainly, a crop of 20 million boxes was still a significant sized crop to supply the world with Northwest cherries. The Northwest Cherry Growers is the organization is charged with helping create demand that pulls our fruit into the market and creates consumer impressions that drive sustained consumption of our fruit.
Bloom Timing: A Mild Winter and Spring Helps Harvest Begin on June 1, 2021
Adjacent is a chart showing the past 22 years of June shipments. As you can see, we saw the 7th largest June shipment volume ever in 2021. The first recorded shipments left the industry on June 1st. The California crop shipped until June 22nd and led to 24 days of overlap – but lower volumes made the overlap negligible.
The timing of this year’s crop was actually a positive for industry marketers as there was an intense sales window leading up to the 4th of July; then a several day wait for the Canadian varieties to mature and the usual heavy market push from mid-July to early August.
As we have seen regularly over the past decade, July was our single largest shipping month in 2021. As the adjacent chart depicts, we saw 9.9 million 20 lb. equivalent boxes shipped in July this year. We estimate that the crop volume was reduced by 20% in 2021; and most of that fruit would have been harvested in July.
To successfully get through July, the industry needs to have a mix of quality fruit, consumer demand and momentum from June fruit sales. Between record heat and a large California crop the June market was not as robust as we saw in 2020. We felt that the market was picking up momentum when the heat hit in June and market flow was disrupted leading into the 4th of July holiday.
It remains relevant to note that the industry consistently shipped almost 4 million boxes after July 25th during the years 2011 to 2012. Likewise, this phenomenon remains an annual opportunity for retailers and importers to maximize sweet cherry category sales almost to September. The 2021 season saw a total of 2.1 million 20 lb. equivalent boxes shipped in August. The last shipments left the industry on September 1st. Over the last several years the Northwest has seen a series of record summer heat – which speeds up fruit maturity in fruit across the region and has reduced potential August volume.
As always, our industry certificates of compliance were heavy to “dark sweets” in 2021. The variety designation “dark sweets” accounted for over 53% of the crop. Each year, more retailers are requesting a box label/stamp that simply states “dark sweets” or “sweet cherries” with no mention of specific variety. We set a light crop on the Bing variety in 2021 which came out to a known total of 1,963,996 20 lb. equivalent boxes which constituted 9% of the total crop. We have lost Bing volume to both little cherry disease and growers planting varieties that have potential for more tonnage per acre than Bing traditionally offers.
We say this every year …. But the reality is that large, sweet cherries drive repeat sales at retail both domestically and in export markets. Larger cherries drive a larger return for growers. Collectively, it is our goal to produce the best sweet cherries in the world and growers have plenty of incentives to farm in a way that produces the largest possible cherries. Row size continues to be an important indicator of quality … and has become a critical standard by which growers measure their production success. Industry post-harvest research points to the fact that larger cherries have a longer shelf life and, on average, have higher sugar levels … which lead to a better eating experience for the consumer. The team at the NWCG hosts numerous educational days for growers and attempts to relay this philosophy to the entire grower base. It is safe to say that “quality” is a key factor in the successful sales and promotion strategy that our industry implements each year. Likewise, the emergence of new technology optical sizing and sorting machinery within the packing facilities has further raised the bar on the “cherry that goes into the box”.
Last year, the extreme heat cost growers at least a half row size that they would normally achieve. Still 80% of the total crop was shipped as 10.5 row and larger – in 2020 the industry shipped 84% of the crop as 10.5 row and larger. In comparing the 2021 crop with the 2020 crop there were actually more 10 and 10 ½ row cherries this past season. However, where the industry really saw a difference in row size was in 9 ½ row and larger size fruit.
The 2021 NW Cherry export market was under stress from both COVID and trade war issues with China. Despite these challenges, NWCG programs had a positive effect on demand from the export markets. Despite the loss of the Chinese market to the US-China Trade War, the export markets continue to be a critical piece of how and where the NW cherry crop is sold.
In 2021, the NWCG ran promotion programs in 17 countries. Marketing strategies for the export markets continue to focus on creating a regional identity associated with the very best quality cherries found on earth … grown in our unique corner of the United States. NWCG works to associate Northwest cherries with healthy, clean, and environmentally conscious production practices. This strategy has helped us develop many new export markets over the past decade.
From a marketing standpoint, the industry has found that for the growers to sustain financial success, the export market needs to absorb between 25% and 30% of the annual crop. The chart above shows the percentage of the crop that has been exported since 1999. The 2021 season saw 5.9 million 20 lb. boxes exported. This portion of the crop accounted for 29.2% of the volume and 32.4% of the dollar sales in 2021.
Total export market volume was down relative to the shorter crop; however, the trade war with China and global pandemic that was hitting Asia particularly hard during the summer months had broad level negative impact on export sales. Particularly, the South East Asia region of Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore and the Philippines were hit hard by COVID and national lockdowns during our harvest. Shipments to the South East Asia region were down 56% from pre-pandemic levels of 2019.
On a positive note, the NW industry shipped over 418,000 20 lb. equivalent boxes to Mexico – which was an increase of 417% over the 2020 season. As the industry moves toward the 2022 season it is worth noting that for the first time in 2022 the industry will have a systems approach access to India. We began preparing the Indian market with care and handling training seminars this past season and believe that over time, India will become a higher volume market for NW Cherries.
Based on USDA NASS surveys, the state of Washington now has 42,198 acres of sweet cherries planted. Likewise, the average tree density per acre count in Washington is 270 trees per acre. Based on previous surveys in Oregon, Idaho, Montana and Utah, the total acreage for the Northwest is estimated at 61,995 acres.
This data is from 2017, and as the last acreage survey was done in 2011, the Northwest crop has increased by 11% during that 5-year window:
Overall, it is estimated that the Northwest has just under 61,000 acres of sweet cherries in production – with new plantings still occurring but the removal of trees and acreage due to “Little Cherry Disease” has served to mitigate overall acreage growth for the Northwest production region. Fresh tonnage for the Northwest has averaged 230,423 over the past five years – which correlates to just over 23 million 20 lb. equivalent boxes per year. In other words, a 20 million box crop is the expectation on any given year despite the fact that forecasting in the cherry business is not an exact science because of the many factors affecting availability each season. The near term (over the next 5 years) forecast is that Northwest crops will continue to range from 200,000 to 250,000 tons of fresh sweet cherries. However, based on USDA acreage information that shows an acreage assumption of 60,000 acres of sweet cherries – it is clear that the Northwest industry could produce between 300,000 and 350,000 tons of sweet cherries for the fresh market if the right production conditions were to fall into place.
In the Pacific Northwest, our fresh cherry crop harvest begins in late May or early June. With over 60,000 acres across 5 states, we are expecting to have a quality crop of fruit for market in 2020. However, the work of growing sweet cherries is a year-round affair and it’s getting longer, thanks to the evident spread of a group of pathogens collectively referred to as Little Cherry Disease. New research from a multi-state task force indicates that beyond tree and/or orchard removal, it’s necessary to control the vectors within orchards for months past harvest, adding additional costs and challenges to already burdened growers. Beyond that, it appears that intervention has removed several million boxes of production capability for the coming season. For several years growers across the Northwest have been feeling the effects of a group of pathogens collectively called Little Cherry Disease (LCD).
Though different in nature, this group of viruses and bacteria cause the same results: small, under-developed and bitter fruit. Researchers have narrowed down their spread between orchards to several insects who carry LCD on their bodies, though the exact method of insect relocation between orchards or spots within an orchard is still yet to be confirmed.
What we do know is that our industry’s orchard practices and packing technology ensure none of the small, bitter fruit is shipped for consumers. The high quality of Northwest cherries is a standard throughout the world, and we are committed to maintaining that bar. Even though it’s been an orchard issue for several years, our shipped crop 5-year average is 80 percent 10.5 row and larger, which is an increase over the 10-year and 15-year averages.
But behind the scenes, it has required some aggressive intervention by our growers. There is no cure yet, so the only procedure to stop the spread is tree or orchard removal. Even after removal, the ground must be attended to and the local source of infection must be addressed, otherwise growers risk re-infecting their replanted orchard. Aside from heavy financial costs, this orchard and tree removal has hit our industry production capability as well. Collectively, our industry estimates that intervention measures have reduced our potential volume by 2.5-3 million boxes for the coming season. This image shows what infected cherries look like on the tree. Once a grower finds this in the tree, the tree is marked for removal and fewer cherries go to market.
Current USDA acreage data suggests that the Pacific Coast industry is nearing a total of 100,000 acres of sweet cherries. In 2021, California shipped the largest crop they had ever harvested. They shipped a total of lb. equivalent boxes. Combined, California and the Northwest shipped over 29.5 million 20 lb. equivalent boxes. As mentioned previously in this report, there was a significant overlap between the Northwest and California this year – with 25 days of overlap shipments. However, the lack of volume in California mitigated any negative market issues for Northwest growers.
Generally, the overlap between the Northwest and California is a non-issue. However, as the growers in California harvested a record size crop there was also record crossover of shipments in 2021.
The “California’s Overlapping Volume” chart shows the total shipments into the market while the Northwest harvest was underway over the past five years:
Northwest Cherry Growers
Yakima, WA, U.S.A.
nwcherries.com